Hapy Electrical Fix and Planning

A few weeks ago, I rotated the headlight switch clockwise and that caused a short that allowed a wire to release it's smoke. Today's post covers that resolution, with some expected twists and closes with a plan to update the fuse box.

Poof

72 bus wiring diagram

First, I accept that what happened was entirely my fault. I turned a push-pull knob, and the housing was loose so I created a short. At first, I thought I had grounded a pin on the back of the switch. Based on the wire which fried, I'm not so sure, but the grey wire fell off of pin 58. That wire fall was what caused the running lights to not function: they tie into fuses 1 and 2 which control them. It wasn't wire 58 which fried.

So, I dug into the interweb. I found another person who had the buzzing noise from their flasher relay and they discovered the root cause was that the dashboard did not have power. Sounds about right, I suppose, so we remove the dash to see. The dash removes with 4 screws. If you are fortunate enough to have the vent and oily-smelling-air controls, you may need to manage them first. I have the older style controls which originally had the little colored spring-loaded clips. Of course, Hapy didn't have the colored clips, and still doesn't. Anyway, remove anything from the vent control levers which impede the dash removal, remove the 4 screws and detach the speedometer cable. Then, the dash lifts straight out (a little diagonal) to the steering wheel. At that point, I rotate it so the face points to the floor. To me, this puts the least pressure on the wires while exposing them for me to see. From here, I could see that the black wire from fuse 12 that delivers 12V to the dash had it's plastic casing melted off. How and why that wire fried rather than popping the fuse, I don't know. The fuse was and is still there, it was relatively new (like, in the last 5 years), the right rating and it was seated properly.

Clumsy

1 fried wire

Knowing which wire needed to be replaced is a great first step. Getting that wire replaced without negatively impacting anything else in the original electrical system, however, is a virtually impossible task. Such was the case this time. First, I pulled the wrong wire out of the fuse box, and as I did, I dislodged a couple of fuses. Then, I got the wire back in and dislodged some other ones. Finally, I found and removed the bad wire from the fuse box, bumping a wire out of the high-beam relay holder as I did. Neat.

I formed a new multi-female-spade-connector wire, using the fried one as a pattern. With a multi-meter, I confirmed the connectivity between all of the end points had 0 resistance and returned to Hapy's driver seat. I plugged the wire into the tabs on the dash, and dangled it behind, finding the tab in the fuse box. Again, I unsettled a few fuses, but once they were in place again, I started testing. First, I confirmed that the running lights and headlights came on. It being daytime, I could tell the lights were on, but not that the headlights were the high-beams. I turned the key to run and the buzzing was gone. The turn signals worked, the hazards worked, and continued to work when I turned off the key. I even test started the engine to prove things were good. What I didn't test: the wipers. It seems that when I was messing around with the fuses, I failed to reseat fuse 11 (which controls the wipers and the rear defogger) after reseating what felt like all of the others -or- another wire fell off. I didn't discover that the wipers didn't work until I tried to take a drive at night in the pouring rain. So much fun. I don't think Hapy likes the winter weather very much; he does seem quite persistent in staying in the driveway.

About Had It

So, after spending so much time diagnosing issues only to discover the issue was the 50+ year-old fuse box or really the style of fuse used in the 50+ year old fuse box, I have decided to look into replacing it. I say that because the wire that fried was on a fuse that didn't blow and the fuses are in the box so loosely now they become disconnected simply by brushing past them. Based on my research, I understand the fuse-box layout / purpose to be this table below. I will replace with a simple 12-slot 12-independent-circuit box that uses spade fuses instead of the old buss style. It will ultimately use the same circuit numbers as before for all of the things I am keeping (never had ambulance fans, nor ignition buzzer, nor interior lights). Plus, it will include things I need, like radiator fans and the fan for the heater.

Fuse #	Original Purpose	Changed Purpose
1a	front running lights, license plate light
2a	rear running lights
3b	passenger low headlight
4b	driver low headlight
5b	passenger high beam
6b	driver high beam
7*	open? looks like it was for ambulance fans	radiator fans
8*	emergency flasher and interior light	emergency flasher only
9*	ignition buzzer, rear interior light	interior heater fan
10#	horn, brake light warning switch/light
11#	windshield wiper, rear defogger	plus the windshield washer pump
12#	dashboard, emergency flasher
	rear backup light

a: supply-side from light switch

b: supply-side from headlight flasher (dimmer relay)

*: always hot

#: switched

&: inline fuse not in fuse box

I will be adding a master circuit-breaker as well back by the starter (where the main 12V source for the fuse box comes from) so there is a safety on the entire #30 circuit that goes to the ignition and the head light switch via the supply-side of the always-hot fuses. I do not know when I will get after this, though. The joy I have had since removing the rat's nest of wires for the engine control has been significant. The wires for the original bus have their problems, and I will be replacing some of the runs (particularly the rear tail lights), but for the most part, they have been up to the task. I just need to find a way to stay somewhat dry and maybe a little not-freezing so I can get after it. Since it is January, I recognize my opportunities for something this big will probably not appear for a while. Still, I can't keep letting smoke out of the wires, and I would very much like to get Hapy out of the driveway for a safe drive-around before spring. For the Pacific NorthWest, that starts with getting the wipers working again and then getting the high-beams turned off.

That's it for today. Thanks, as always, for following along-

Dashing Thru the Smoke

After returning Hapy to service, I have not driven him much. As has been true for most of the time we have been together, he doesn't have heat. So it's like driving in an ice fishing shed... which probably brings some appeal to some folks, but it's not my favorite. Still, if I had to get somewhere and I could get there without using freeways, I would and have drive(n) Hapy. Why not freeways? This time of year, as I am sure you have noticed, drivers are especially distracted and others are driving specially, uh... nasty. This old bus needs more braking space than modern cars but other drivers don't always recognize that. When you add those factors together, it is tough sledding in the bus. Add in wet or slick roads and it gets scary. Regular roads are bad enough, but freeway speeds are too scary in the winter for me and the bus. With this backdrop, I start today's post.

Smoked Again

can you spot the loose wire?

A few years ago, on the return drive from 4Peaks, we were greeted with smoke billowing out from under the dash (See 4Peaks 2018 - Road Report). Somehow the ignition sub-harness had fried, leaving us stranded, riding home on a flatbed again. There's a song lyric in there somewhere. Anyway, I fixed that once and then again in a not-to-my-best-liking way with now 2 keys to operate the bus: one to unlock the steering and one to start/run the engine. This is working well enough so I leave it alone.

The other night, I had to drive out to Hillsboro for a final recording session with the band I'm playing in (shameless plug: Sunkicks), and Boo had not returned from work. So, I pressed Hapy into service. With the new starter and better glow-plugs, he fired right up and hummed like he was ready for some fun. It was damp out, so the lack of heat meant drying the inside of the windscreen with a towel, but for the ride out, it only needed that one wipe down. Even the driver door closed without too much trouble. It was like Hapy was really trying his best to show he was a real car and could be used reliably. We stopped for some home repair parts at the big box home repair store and he started right up afterwards. Again, "I'm a real car".

After the recording session concluded, the temperature had continued to drop, while the moisture held steady so the interior glass was quite foggy. Hapy fired right up and I flipped on the running lights while I refamiliarized myself with the controls in the dark. I thought I had the switch for the fans in my hand, but it was actually the headlight control... I turned hard it to the right (the fan control switch has always been a little resistant), and rather than turn on the fans, I caused something to ground, causing a wire to release it's smoke. When I saw the smoke, I turned the switch back left (anti-clockwise) but the damage had been done. All that was left was to figure out how widespread it was, and to apologize to Hapy; this wasn't his fault, it was all mine. The smoke was pretty bad though, considering the windows were closed, the bus wasn't moving and the fan wasn't on. The next day, my throat was still sore from it. When I opened the driver window, it must have looked like a scene from Fast Times at Ridgemont High with the billowing smoke rolling out.

dripping blue

Starting with the positive... the engine was still running. The cooling fans were on and could be turned on and off. The defogger (doesn't defrost, hardly de-fogs) fan could be turned on and off. As to the negative, the driving lights were out, I think the tail lights were out and there was an annoying buzzer like a seatbelt warning was on. When I flipped the turn signal or hazards, the front lights flashed correctly and the buzzing went away. I was still sitting, idling in front of my bandmate's house, so I decided that I would just drive home and deal with it later.

The drive home was quite uneventful other than the constant buzz noise and concern that drivers behind me could not see us nor tell when we were braking. When I got home, the engine and fans shut off without issue. It was too late and too dark to diagnose, but my hunch was that it's the wire that sends a signal to the running lights.

Wire Still a Puzzler

A few days later, when I could go out to the bus in daylight, I went out and removed the headlight switch from the dash. I could see one of the wires had become detached, but I was unable to see any truly fried wires. Puzzled, I plugged the wire into the open pin on the back of the switch, and tried the lights. Yep, headlights still turn on, dash lights still turn on.... running lights turn on. All of them, including the tail lights. So, I pulled on the hazard switch. Dash directionals flash, front directionals flash, rear directionals flash. At this point, I don't know what's fried, but the engine starts and runs, the cooling fans fire, the dash lights, switches and gauges work and all the lights work. In the middle picture, just above, there's a light blue orb thing on the lower left side of the image. That is a blue drip that I cannot account for, but I think something melted and that's the result. Neat.

I think it is time for me to determine which of the original circuits no longer need to be served and at the very least remove the fuses. After the cleanup I did in the back for running the engine, I think it would be wise to plan to do something very similar up front. I mean, in the end, the only things the "main" fuse box is running now are the dash, and the lights. That's like, 4 fuses tops? Regardless, this exercise should lead me to the smoked wire and reduce the electrical gremlins.

Furnace Update

furnace control board

Our electrician is semi-retired. He used to run a HVAC company and has installed literally hundreds of furnaces before focusing on general residential electrical instead. Now, as he is slowly divesting of his electrical business, he has observed my work on our furnace. In a fit of holiday fever (he swore off furnace work years ago), he popped by for a couple of hours, got the gas line hooked up and leak tested as well as the 110V electrical feed completed, with a worker shut-off switch. He even got most of the exhaust venting put in. He hit a wall when he was unable to connect the control cable because the access screws are hidden behind a panel that you can't get to once the first piece of exhaust venting is attached to the furnace. That's some poor design.

Still, I saw the furnace project as 7 big individual efforts: demo/move/mount, conditioned air distribution, cold air return, gas, electric, exhaust vent and the thermostat/control cable. I had completed the first 2. He knocked down 2 more (gas and electric) and set me up to get the next 2: thermostat control and exhaust vent. Once I have that done, he will confirm things, and test the system. Then, I just need to get the cold air to pull from inside the house and we have a complete system. For testing purposes, I may simply smack a filter on the plenum.

Since I started this thread, I caught a cold, celebrated Christmas and installed the thermostat control cable. As I indicated, I had to remove the exhaust venting all the way to the firebox before I could remove the panel which covers the control board. I ran a new wire from beneath the furnace (where the old one entered) and connected the control wires. Before putting everything back together, I took the opportunity to spray the snot out of the control board with a can of computer-cleaning compressed air. I figured that panel won't be coming off anytime soon, so may as well get the board as clean as I can. After that, it was simple replacing that which was removed, re-using the same fasteners.

That's about where things are today. Hapy appears operational, and I will be test driving him here in the next couple of days. The furnace is almost ready to test. I need to complete the assembly of the exhaust vent and properly suspend it from the floor to retain the correct exit angle, but I think that is a couple of hours effort at most.

Thanks as always, for following along. Have a peaceful, pleasant, hapy new year-

Where There's Smoke...

With a title like that, this post could go almost anywhere. I could ramble about the elections, or about newspaper articles, lying public officials, whistle-blowers, conspiracy theories, you name it. Instead, today I will focus on literally smoke. As in the smoke that has sat outside my house, and up and down the west coast for almost 2 weeks. Fortunately, we were hit with a big storm at the end of last week that washed the smoke away. Still, 10+ days of hazardous air was absolutely post-worthy. Before I begin, Hapy first day of Fall.

AQI
The various Star Trek series like to have moments sprinkled through episodes where they get to say how "adaptive" humans are. While this is awfully self-congratulatory, we see it every day, if we look for it. Case-in-point, we have the "AQI" (Air Quality Index) that tells us how badly polluted the air is. I'm sure this measure has been around for decades, and folks who are much closer to air quality or environmental spaces have known about it and its importance for years. For the rest of us, this is a new number, like when we learned about Kelvin or Hg (vacuum measurement, not Mercury) in science class. 2 weeks ago, someone would say "it's, like, 90 in here" and we, Americans, would all know that they were saying it is hot. For my worldly readers, 90*F is about 32*C.

Fast forward 2 weeks where we have had dangerous air in the Willamette Valley. When it started, we just heard "it's bad. don't go outside" and that it will be gone in a couple of days. Knowing that the weather folks are about as good at predicting weather as coin-flips, the industrious, curious Oregonians searched for something that would give us a little more to go on than "its bad. stay inside watching our program, after this commercial". I first spotted the PM on the AccuWeather app on my phone, but it would only show current state. I want to see if it is getting better or worse. So, I downloaded the Plume Labs app. This thing shows a pollution forecast. While it isn't very good at projecting, or showing historical data, at least it tries. I can see that it will be getting worse, so if I have to go outside for something, I understand that waiting would be a worse idea than just going now... with a mask on. By the way, the picture on the side here is a T-selfie fighting the Obenchain fire in Southern Oregon.

Going back to talking to our friends and relatives, 2 weeks ago, we would talk about temperature and compare how much cooler it was on the west side versus downtown Portland. "It's 85 here". "Oh, it's over 90 there?". That was pre-LaborDay2020 thinking. Now, our conversation is like "it was 350 earlier today, but now it's 460". Or "overnight it looks like it dropped down below 100, but now it's over 250 again." The number itself is super important, but without context a 3-digit number could be super-bad (like over 130*F mid-day outside temp would be) or a 3-digit number could be virtually meaningless (like how many meters from my house my mailbox is). So, what do these numbers mean?

range	rating	description
0-20	Excellent	typical air in Oregon, perfect for any outside activity for everyone
20-50	Fair	generally good for most. Sensitive people might feel some minor to moderate symptoms from long term exposure. So... sensitive folks can take short walks, but no soccer
50-100	Poor	unhealthy for sensitive folks. non-sensitive people may feel some minor to moderate symptoms. Sensitive people should reduce time outside
100 - 150	Unhealthy	Health effects felt immediately by sensitive. Healthy folks may have difficulty breathing or feel a sore throat
150 - 150	Very Unhealthy	Health effects felt immediately by sensitive. Healthy folks will probably have difficulty breathing or feel a sore throat
250+	Dangerous	Health effects felt immediately by everyone. Any exposure, even for a few minutes, can have serious health effects

So, when I tell you that it's 368 here, you understand just how bad that is.

Car Content
I bring all this up because the smoke has been keeping me from my cars. Mostly. After a week of dangerous smoke, I heard that we were going to be getting rain. Before the rain was supposed to arrive, we were supposed to get fog blended in with the smoke. So, smog. Literally. The ash from the forest fires is not a big deal to your car while it is dry. Once it gets wet, however, it can start to damage your paint. So, before the rain was due, and shortly after the fog rolled in, I pulled on my old house-painting respirator and hosed down the herd. I was not looking for clean, I was looking for dust-free. The fog passed, and the rain did not arrive for another week. Instead, we got morning dew, in the smoke. Still, my preventative placement of a tarp on the stripped-to-metal Zed and a tarp on the convertible top of Oliver should help them from getting damaged even worse.

... there's FIRE (Political Rant warning)

One upside to all the mask-wearing we need to endure to protect our fellow citizens from CoViD-19 is we have grown accustomed to wearing one. So, when pollution is so bad that we need to wear a mask outside to simply get the mail, we already have the masks on hand (I hope, for your sake). Thanks for screwing up the CoViD response, Mr. Trump, or many of us wouldn't have had a mask available when the forest fires grew so large that most of the population on the West Coast now needed to wear a mask all the time just to avoid pulmonary issues. But, will this finally get the anti-maskers to put on a mask? Unlikely, based on the pictures of the Estacada gun-toters who are stopping cars they don't recognize and asking the persons inside about their political views. When better to debate politics than maskless, in "Dangerous" air, in the middle of a pandemic, while a forest fire is forcing an evacuation around you, at gunpoint? Really... just... wow.

/Political Rant
Looking back, my first post of this year, or last post of last year, was on December 31, 2019 (See GenXplained). Looking at that post about a dystopian present seems almost prophetic. When I consider how much has gone down the tubes in this country since I wrote that post, it is staggering. If you told me then that I would have spent 6 months working from home followed by 2 weeks locked inside because of a pandemic and historically unprecedented fire season respectively, I would have thought you were a total doomsdayer. Let's not forget the police violence, protests, unmarked vans nabbing people off the Portland streets and protester-versus-protester violence. And yet, here we are.

I have spent my woulda-been-wrenching time watching how-to-paint-your-car videos. I hope I will learn enough to paint the Zed well enough that Boo will want to drive it, and proudly so. Time will tell.

Thanks, as always, for following along. This has been a hard few weeks/months for all of us. I sincerely hope this rough road is coming to an end. Better days lie ahead, I'm sure of it. I wish they would just arrive already. In the meantime, please wear a mask when in public and remember that a mask covers your mouth and nose. It is not a fabric chinstrap.

Chinook Fest 2017 - Road Report

I inverted the road and festival reports this time around, in terms of their writing and posting. The festival was so great, the organizers and festers so nice, I didn't want to color the reader's opinion based on our travel adventures. And it was an adventure... at least getting there was.

The Set-up

Here in the States, we celebrate "Labor Day" as the last long weekend of a typical Summer. It is often the last-gasp for those looking to maximize their sunny season. Boo and I celebrated with a weekend on the Oregon Coast. While this post isn't about that, it is important in the greater context. We didn't get home from the beach until after dark on Monday, and we decided to leave for Chinook Fest the following Thursday night. This prevented any last-minute test flights of the bus, and restricted time for general packing. Actually, we packed Monday night as clothes we took to the beach went through laundry cycles.

Our other prep-work was similarly haphazard. Most of our camping gear had been stored in the bus, so packing the rest seemed easy. In truth, it was, except for forgetting the french press. In the end, that didn't matter anyway since we also forgot coffee. Boo pre-cooked a bunch of chicken, getting up in the middle of the night Wednesday to complete it.

Almost Not a Departure

This summer has been historic in terms of wild fires across the western US. While news people have been highly focused on the hurricanes in the southeastern US, we have seen over 1.5 million acres burned across 6 western continental states. There are more burning in western Canada and Alaska. Those who don't live here may not know how widespread it is. It's bad. You can smell smoke most days, and see orange skies with a red sun many days. Thousands have been displaced, uncounted animals (both wild and livestock) lost, homes destroyed, etc. As we plotted our trip, elevation climbs were secondary to genuinely open routes from home to fest and back again, trying to forecast where the fires and smoke would go so we could make the round trip at all. I found this US Forestry Service Beta site where smoke forecast models can be run. Once you get past the scary fires part, it's really very cool.

This story starts like so many of our get-outta-Dodge stories: with simply getting home from work. Boo had to work a little late, so she hit typical rush hour traffic, delaying our departure a little bit. The gas and grocery stop wasn't too time consuming, though we doubled back home for a few things.
In fact, between the traffic delay, gas, groceries, final packing and the double-back, the sun had set before we got on the road around 8:30PM. We drove through downtown Beaverton and got onto OR217 North and saw our temps start to climb. Again. Since we hadn't hit normal temps, we pressed on, but I kept my eye on the gauge.

One Exit at a Time

By the time we got to the Sylvan exit, we had crossed over 194* and I had to pull over. No sooner did I start pulling off than the temp started to drop. We pulled through the intersection at the end of the ramp and onto the on-ramp before pulling to the side. We idled and watched the temp drop down to 185* (the temp the thermostat is rated) and then settle there. There was no backing up; in order to head anywhere, we needed to get back on the freeway. So, we nosed onto the on-ramp, and elected to just go one more exit (to the Oregon Zoo) and turn around. Maybe we could find a spot to vagabond.

From the Sylvan on-ramp, the highway goes downhill, and the temps didn't move. So, we kept going. The made it through the tunnel and onto I-405 North without issue, though the temp started to climb again as we turned onto the Fremont Bridge. We stayed right, thinking we could just take the Kirby Street exit and camp in front of my brother's house. But the temp started dropping again, so just before the exit started to fork off of the highway, I drifted left, back into the slow lane. We continued north onto I-5. As we approached the Interstate Bridge into Washington, the possibility of making it to Chinook Fest started entering our thoughts. We talked about what the best route would be: over the reportedly very steep White Pass on US-12 or through the potentially toxic smoke in the Columbia Gorge? Hapy answered by raising his temp, so we turned onto Washington State Route (SR) 14.

Smoke on the Water
Once on SR-14, Hapy and I settled into a rhythm. I wouldn't push him too fast, and he wouldn't raise his temperature too high. We followed the Columbia River past the I-205 interchange where the highway narrows to 2 lanes (one each direction with a pair of yellow lines down the middle). By now, it was after 10:PM, but the road was still quite busy. The major interstate (I-84) on the Oregon side of the river was closed from Troutdale to Hood River, and the last open river crossing until the other side of the closure was the I-205. This increased traffic held with us until Hood River, and then almost everyone turned off to I-84. We stayed. And we were suddenly alone.

As we traveled East, we could taste the smoke in the air, but didn't really see it until after Hood River. The wind had been blowing east, so the massive wild fire which was so close was not really perceptible. Once past Hood River, though, we found that we needed to put surgical masks on so we could breathe more easily. With masks on, we navigated the twists and turns of SR-14 as well as ascending / descending the summits. The smoke created an eerie fog-like space, changing perceptions of time and speed. With our speeds lowered for visibility, Hapy stayed below 192* and we didn't need to pull off to let him cool. Hapy was happy and keeping him cool wasn't a constant affair. Just East of Wishram, we turned North onto US-97, passed through Goldendale and entered the Yakima Indian Reservation. As remote as SR-14 felt after our fellow travelers turned south, we felt completely isolated now. The hour grew later, and while conversation was lively, we were both growing tired. So, as we entered Toppenish we saw the always-open Branding Iron Restaurant and pulled in for a bite.

Not Toppenish. More Bottomish

It was well after midnight by the time we stopped, and there were 2 cars and a semi in the parking lot plus our bus. The service at the Branding Iron was fast and friendly, the food was good, and more than we could consume in a single seating. Being 1 in the morning, and the only place open in Toppenish, strange people came and went while we were there. The waitress explained about the homeless, and about the serial drug users who will try to get a handout. With Toppenish being such a small town, I was a little surprised, but I guess meth has made it everywhere now.

As we were leaving, Boo suddenly became ill. We were out of the restaurant and heading back onto US-97, so we just kept going, and chose to follow the hospital signs. We found a small E/R clinic just off the main road. After a bunch of tests, and a couple of hours, they prescribed antibiotics for an infection, gave her one to start with and sent us on our way. It was 4:15AM. We had actually spent more time in Toppenish than we had spent getting there. With the gates opening at 8 and an hour left in our drive, we chose to keep going as long as we could.

Naches, WA

We entered the town of Naches just before 5:AM. We thought we would see a place to camp along the way, or at least a place to get Boo's prescription, but we found neither. At the far edge of town, we pulled into the Forest Service Ranger Station and parked under a tree to take a nap. Hapy had been a champ getting us this far, and we only had about 30 minutes further to the festival grounds. We zonked very quickly and awoke without prompting at 8:10. While wild fare smoke seemed to be increasing around us, we fired up Hapy and drove the last few miles out of cell-phone coverage to a festival that had eluded us for the last time.

Homeward
As much as the drive there was an adventure, the drive home was relatively uneventful. We filled up with regular Diesel #2 as a stop in Naches that gave Hapy sporadic fits and starts, but his temps stayed relatively predictable. When they got high, we pulled over. That happened quite a bit, especially through the Yakima Indian Reservation. We stopped for lunch and a prescription pick-up at a Fred Meyers in Yakima. We hit heavy traffic east of Stevenson because of the I-84 closure, and watched the traffic lighten as we passed I-205. We left the festival after 1:30 and arrived home around 8:30 after just one extended stop, and a handful of pull-overs for Hapy cool-downs.

We thought we were going to vagabond in Portland. Then, we spent 3 hours in the E/R. The fact that we entered the gates at all was a miracle. Boo was incredible, between over-work, under-sleep and fighting an infection, her constitution amazes me.

As to Hapy, I talked to lots of fellow car folks at Chinook Fest. The consensus is that my thermostat may be sticking (replace it), but my radiator is under-powered for the amount of heat I ask it to shed. I will look into replacing it with a new high-performance radiator. You know I'll post about it when I get it done. One closing point: we got just over 33MPG round trip.
#ChinookFest
As always, thanks for following along. More to come...

Light a cigarette, attract a bus

Most folks have heard of the old "Murphy's Law": that which could go wrong, will. I counter that with the Paulie Axiom: the moment at which you give up on something happening is the exact moment when it takes place. I've seen this play out often enough that it is more than coincidence. There's something in the ethos that triggers when you give up, or mourn the loss.

Early Morning U-Turn
Years ago, when I first moved to the Portland area, I got a 3rd floor walkup on NorthWest 22nd near the Good Samaritan Hospital. Neat old building. I got my first Portland job parking cars between SW Oak and Stark on 2nd. In the morning, I would walk the block or so to 21st and pick up the #17 bus downtown. On mornings when the bus was late, I would invariably give up on it and start walking. I wouldn't get more than a block down 21st before the headlights of the old #17 rounded the corner from further uptown and I'd turn around and quick-foot back to the stop. This happened frequently, but it took a few years of reflection to really note the pattern. On the days the bus didn't arrive, I just walked the 30 blocks to work.

Lost, Found by the Disinterested
Years earlier, when I still lived in upstate New York, I had spent the day in the park with my friends, playing footbag and listening to music on a boom-box. It was getting late, and the afternoon was turning to evening, so we started to get ready to leave. It was then that one of my friends discovered that he had lost his keys. We had been all over the park, so the probability of finding them, especially in the increasing dark, was very low. I said as much and (bad friend) didn't invest in the search. While the others crawled around on the ground, I just kinda wandered around, waiting for them to give up so we could go home. That was when I found his keys. By accepting that they would not be found, they presented themselves to me. The one who lost the keys was split between anger that I didn't actually look and relief that they'd been found. He resolved to relief, but I don't think he ever forgave me for not "really helping".

Light a Cigarette, Attract a Bus
Years after living in NW Portland, I was again dependent on Tri-Met. I was living on SE 22nd, working graveyard shifts in a produce warehouse while going to Portland State full time during the day. Crazy. I got a full sleep every other day, and took a 2 hour nap the other day. Anyway, unlike when I lived in NW Portland, I couldn't just walk to school. Since the buses running down the Mt. Tabor incline to the bridges over the Willamette run so often, any waiting is caused purely from them being full to capacity by the time they get below 26th. I found, though, that when you just gave up on a bus stopping anytime soon, and lit a smoke, a bus would appear. Too often, this happened just after lighting, so you had a spoiled cig without any of the satisfaction of having laid a drag onto it.

Over the years, this axiom has presented again and again. When I describe this phenomenon to folks, I am usually greeted with a story that demonstrates it. From giving up on finding a purse along an abandoned highway only to spot it in your headlights moments later to finally getting hold of someone on the phone to let you into a locked building just as someone else brushes past you to unlock the door, there is a strange phenomenon happening. It's the Paulie Axiom - the moment at which you give up on something happening is the exact moment when it takes place.
As I complete this atypical posting, my good friend Justin is celebrating his successful completion of his degree program. It took me 10 years from high school to university graduation, and Justin followed a more greatly challenged path. I'm sorry I can't be there in person to toast you, Justin. It may just be a piece of paper to some, but yours is a true measure of determination and courage. Sincerely, congratulations.

Thanks for following along. I'll return to my more typical rankings next time...